Week 8 2022 Recap - KFL Analytics

Week 8 Recap

Week 8 was a high scoring affair in the KFL with 9 teams generating a win probability of 0.59 or higher based on scoring. The Kraken handled the Slugs by putting up 111. Meanwhile the Bluecats had a bounce back week putting up 98 against the Glum division leaders, the Onionheads. Speaking of the Glum Division, the Titan’s got a bad beat losing in a game where they put up 94 against the Death Monarchs. The Death Monarchs were lead by stud of the week Christain McCaffery and see new life as they improve to 3-5. Speaking of new life, the Tenderloins, once the bottom of the league, are surging with a 121-71 win over the slumping LGTE. The “UN” Lucky Ducks continue to stay hot beating up on the sad excuse for a franchise that is the GMO’s. Finally, another great shootout saw the Sunday Winners top the Diamond Dogs 118-108. The Diamond Dogs will feel particularly stung by that result as it sees them go to the bottom of the Indiana division standings.

Winning Team	Win Probability	Score	Score	Win Probability	Losing Team
Week 8 2022 matchups
Alex's Kraken	0.89	111	76	0.34	Jeffs Slugs
Sam’s Bluecats	0.75	98	74	0.30	Ruwes Onionheads
Cincinnati Death Monarchs	0.96	124	94	0.68	Scott's TITANS
Kurt's The Tenderloins	0.95	121	71	0.26	Elliot's Last Good Tight End
Nick's Unlucky Ducks	0.59	89	59	0.12	Michael's GMOs
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	0.94	118	108	0.87	Diamond Dogs

Expected Wins power rankings through week 8 2022

The Onionheads stay atop our leader board in expected wins almost hitting the 5 xW mark. We have a new second place team in the Death Monarchs suggesting they are likely to close the 2 game gap in their division and compete as we head down the stretch. We are then followed up by the Kraken and “Un” Lucky Ducks who remain the luckiest team in the league with 2.84 wins over expectation. The middle cluster has LGTE and Sunday Winner’s followed by the Titans,Slugs, and Bluecats all with 3.5 to 4 expected wins. To round out our standings the bottom of the barrel continues to be the Diamond Dogs, Tenderloins, and GMOs with the Tenderloins finally getting out of last place and improving to 2.4 expected wins while the GMO now sit at the very bottom with a measly 1.86 expected wins on the season.

Team Name	Expected Wins	Wins Over Expected
Expected Wins through Week 8
Ruwes Onionheads	4.97	1.03
Cincinnati Death Monarchs	4.64	-1.64
Alex's Kraken	4.22	1.78
Nick's Unlucky Ducks	4.16	2.84
Elliot's Last Good Tight End	3.98	0.02
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	3.84	-0.84
Scott's TITANS	3.83	-0.83
Jeffs Slugs	3.70	0.30
Sam’s Bluecats	3.45	1.55
Diamond Dogs	3.08	-1.08
Kurt's The Tenderloins	2.41	0.59
Michael's GMOs	1.86	0.14

Standings through Week 8

The “UN” Lucky Ducks have the best record at 7-1 with a 1 game lead over the Kraken who look to be the only competition in the division. The Onionheads stay 2 games ahead despite their lose as the LGTE continue to lose steam and move to a .500 record. Meanwhile, the Ohio division is heating up as the Bluecats take a 1 game lead over the Slugs but see the Death Monarch’s and Sunday Winners catch up both improving to 3-5.

Team	Wins	Losses
Standings Through Week 8
Indiana
Nick's Unlucky Ducks	7	1
Alex's Kraken	6	2
Kurt's The Tenderloins	3	5
Diamond Dogs	2	6
Glum
Ruwes Onionheads	6	2
Elliot's Last Good Tight End	4	4
Scott's TITANS	3	5
Michael's GMOs	2	6
Ohio
Sam’s Bluecats	5	3
Jeffs Slugs	4	4
Cincinnati Death Monarchs	3	5
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	3	5

Best Ball Week 8 Update

The Bluecats continue to get the best out of their roster with only 48 points under optimal line up. The Slugs and Onionheads aren’t far behind and all three franchises can contribute their success thus far to good lineup decisions even if their best ball records are poor. On the other side of the spectrum we continue to see the Tenderloins and Unlucky Ducks leave a lot of points on the bench. The Unlucky Ducks would be the highest scoring team in a best ball format as opposed to being 4th in scoring given actual league scoring. This hasn’t stopped them from raking up an impressive league best record though.

franchise_id	KFL Team	Points under Optimal	Total Score - Optimal Lineup	Actual Total Score	Best Ball Wins	Best Ball Loss
6	Sam’s Bluecats	-48	685	637	2	6
1	Jeffs Slugs	-51	720	669	4	4
2	Ruwes Onionheads	-56	819	763	5	3
7	Cincinnati Death Monarchs	-85	812	727	2	6
11	Michael's GMOs	-87	620	533	2	6
12	Diamond Dogs	-103	710	607	2	6
9	Alex's Kraken	-114	817	703	5	3
10	Elliot's Last Good Tight End	-115	793	678	5	3
5	Scott's TITANS	-147	803	656	4	4
3	Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	-156	828	672	5	3
8	Nick's Unlucky Ducks	-170	870	700	7	1
4	Kurt's The Tenderloins	-193	747	554	4	4

Stud of the Week

The number two overall pick in the KFL this year is our stud of the week as Christain McCaffery is liberated from the shackles of a horrendous Carolina Panthers franchise. He did it all this week throwing, catching, running, and putting up 33 points, a full 20 over expectation. He may become second half MVP in this 49ers offense and is bringing life back to the Death Monarchs.

KFL Team	player		Team	actual score	projection	difference
Cincinnati Death Monarchs	Christian McCaffrey		SF	33	13.2	19.8

Dud of the Week

Dud of the week this week goes to Jonathon Taylor. Definitely not the performance you want to see from the number 1 overall draft pick in the KFL this year. A measly five points means LGTE need to rely on Zach Wilson becoming Steve Young in short order with their Jet’s laden offense if they want a chance to compete for the title this year.

KFL Team	player		Team	actual score	projection	difference
Elliot's Last Good Tight End	Jonathan Taylor		IND	5	13.8	-8.8