Week 7 2022 Recap - KFL Analytics

Week 7 Recap

Welcome to the midpoint of the regular season KFL fans! We have a clear forerunner this year in the Onionheads who by all metrics are looking to be the team to beat. Another massive performance this week led to a 132 week and win over the Kraken. The “UN”Lucky Ducks bounce back with a dominating victory over the Bluecats putting up 125 points and generating a win probability of 0.96. The Death Monarch’s lost a heart breaker to the Tenderloins by 3 and they have to come to the conclusion that it just isn’t their year. Another surprise winner this week was the Sunday Winner’s who picked up their second win of the season on the LGTE who live and die by the Lamar/Andrew stack and put up a sad 40 points. The Slug’s had a mediocre performance but mediocre is always enough to beat the GMO’s who are really finding new ways to embarrass themselves every week. To round out the week the Titan’s got the W over the Diamond Dog’s who will desperately await Josh Allen to return from his bye.

Winning Team	Win Probability	Score	Score	Win Probability	Losing Team
Week 7 2022 matchups
Nick's Unlucky Ducks	0.96	125	78	0.37	Sam’s Bluecats
Kurt's The Tenderloins	0.43	81	78	0.37	Cincinnati Death Monarchs
Ruwes Onionheads	0.98	132	65	0.18	Alex's Kraken
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	0.80	102	40	0.03	Elliot's Last Good Tight End
Jeffs Slugs	0.39	79	43	0.04	Michael's GMOs
Scott's TITANS	0.57	88	52	0.07	Diamond Dogs

Expected Wins power rankings through week 7 2022

The Onionheads are really the class of the KFL at the midway point with a massive 0.9 expected win lead over the LGTE who are now crashing back down towards their expected wins with only 0.2 wins over expected. In 3rd and 4th we have the best of times and the worst of times with two teams that have gone in very different directions in the standings. The 2 win Death Monarchs have 3.68 expected wins on the season while the “UN”Lucky Ducks sit in 4th, but have enjoyed a 6 win season that put them at 2.4 wins over expected.

Following the top 4, we have a tight race between the Slugs, Kraken, and Titans all with between 3.5 and 3 expected wins. Near the bottom we have the Bluecats who have fallen off on a 2 game losing streak that seems well deserved given their 2.7 expected wins on the season. Finally, The Tenderloins are trying to close the gap at the bottom as the GMO’s have simply given up and now only sit ~0.3 expected wins apart.

Team Name	Expected Wins	Wins Over Expected
Expected Wins through Week 7
Ruwes Onionheads	4.67	1.33
Elliot's Last Good Tight End	3.72	0.28
Cincinnati Death Monarchs	3.68	-1.68
Nick's Unlucky Ducks	3.57	2.43
Jeffs Slugs	3.36	0.64
Alex's Kraken	3.32	1.68
Scott's TITANS	3.15	-0.15
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	2.90	-0.90
Sam’s Bluecats	2.70	1.30
Diamond Dogs	2.22	-0.22
Michael's GMOs	1.75	0.25
Kurt's The Tenderloins	1.47	0.53

Standings through Week 7

The “UN”Lucky Ducks take clear lead of the Indiana Division with a 6-1 record, but the Kraken are still tight on their heels. Meanwhile the 6-1 Onionheads are on a 6 game heater and lead their division by 2 games as LGTE slump to 4-3 and the Titans are moving up with a 3-4 record. The Ohio division finds itself in a tie at the top between the Slugs and Bluecats at 4-3 which will surely be a fight for the division that will last to the end of the season.

Team	Wins	Losses
Standings Through Week 6
Indiana
Nick's Unlucky Ducks	6	1
Alex's Kraken	5	2
Diamond Dogs	2	5
Kurt's The Tenderloins	2	5
Glum
Ruwes Onionheads	6	1
Elliot's Last Good Tight End	4	3
Scott's TITANS	3	4
Michael's GMOs	2	5
Ohio
Jeffs Slugs	4	3
Sam’s Bluecats	4	3
Cincinnati Death Monarchs	2	5
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	2	5

Best Ball Week 7 Update

The Bluecats continue to get the most of their roster and not leave many points on the bench, but they aren’t generating many points to begin with considering a terrible 1-6 best ball record. The Slugs and Onionheads aren’t far behind, but they have much better best ball records that better reflect their true record. Nick’s “UN”Lucky ducks haven’t had the most optimal lineup, likely due to mid game injuries, but still would have a stellar best ball record. Meanwhile, it would be a much different season for the Sunday Winners and Tenderloins had either team been more optimal with their lineup decisions.

franchise_id	KFL Team	Points under Optimal	Total Score - Optimal Lineup	Actual Total Score	Best Ball Wins	Best Ball Loss
6	Sam’s Bluecats	-47	586	539	1	6
1	Jeffs Slugs	-51	644	593	4	3
2	Ruwes Onionheads	-56	745	689	5	2
11	Michael's GMOs	-66	540	474	2	5
7	Cincinnati Death Monarchs	-79	682	603	1	6
12	Diamond Dogs	-86	585	499	2	5
9	Alex's Kraken	-94	686	592	4	3
10	Elliot's Last Good Tight End	-115	722	607	5	2
5	Scott's TITANS	-136	698	562	4	3
8	Nick's Unlucky Ducks	-143	754	611	6	1
3	Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners	-146	700	554	4	3
4	Kurt's The Tenderloins	-191	624	433	3	4

Stud of the Week

Joey Brrrr. Joe Cool. Joe Burrow. It was only a matter of time before he had a stud of the week performance. He put up an insane 45 points or 23 more than expected and led the Onionheads to KFL dominance. He moved the ball at will and all Bengals fans hope we will see an continuation of that performance in the coming weeks.

KFL Team	player		Team	actual score	projection	difference
Ruwes Onionheads	Joe Burrow		CIN	45	22.1	22.9

Dud of the Week

Dud of the Week this week is someone who has had some studly performances in the past, but really let down the LGTE this week. Lamar Jackson finished almost 20 points under expected and combined with Mark Andrews to bring down the LGTE to a 4-3 record this week.

KFL Team	player		Team	actual score	projection	difference
Elliot's Last Good Tight End	Lamar Jackson		BAL	9	28.2	-19.2