Week 5 Recap
Nick’s “UN” Lucky Ducks are anything but and they should find their way to a casino shortly with the heater they are on. Not only do they get another win, but they win a tie-breaker off a miracle of a game by TE Travis Kelce. The Kraken put up another big win and keep pace right on the Duck’s heels. Meanwhile, LGTE win a slugfest against the woefully unlucky Monarchs who seem destined to face 100+ point opponents week after week. The Bluecats got a win against the Titans to take the division lead. In a battle of the basement, the GMO’s eked out a win against the Tenderloins.
| Week 5 2022 matchups | |||||||
| Winning Team | Win Probability | Score | Score | Win Probability | Losing Team | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick's Unlucky Ducks |  |
0.57 | 88 | 88 | 0.57 |  |
Jeffs Slugs |
| Alex's Kraken |  |
0.96 | 126 | 78 | 0.37 |  |
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners |
| Michael's GMOs |  |
0.13 | 61 | 53 | 0.08 |  |
Kurt's The Tenderloins |
| Sam’s Bluecats |  |
0.51 | 85 | 67 | 0.20 |  |
Scott's TITANS |
| Elliot's Last Good Tight End |  |
0.88 | 109 | 103 | 0.81 |  |
Cincinnati Death Monarchs |
| Ruwes Onionheads |  |
0.75 | 98 | 55 | 0.09 |  |
Diamond Dogs |
Expected Wins power rankings through week 5 2022
The Glum Division has our two juggernauts with a clear gap between LGTE and Onionhead’s at the top of the expected wins table. The next tier has the Kraken, Slugs, and Monarchs who get the dubious honor of being our unluckiest team at -1.8 wins under expected. Two division leaders sit in the third tier with the “UN” Lucky ducks sitting at almost 3 wins over expected. All the way at the bottom of our expected wins rankings sit the Tenderloins who are still trying to rack up 1 expected win.
| Expected Wins through Week 5 | |||
| Team Name | Expected Wins | Wins Over Expected | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot's Last Good Tight End | |
3.44 | 0.56 |
| Ruwes Onionheads | |
3.39 | 0.61 |
| Jeffs Slugs | |
2.86 | 0.14 |
| Cincinnati Death Monarchs | |
2.81 | -1.81 |
| Alex's Kraken | |
2.76 | 1.24 |
| Sam’s Bluecats | |
2.26 | 1.74 |
| Nick's Unlucky Ducks | |
2.18 | 2.82 |
| Scott's TITANS | |
2.09 | -1.09 |
| Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners | |
2.00 | -1.00 |
| Diamond Dogs | |
1.60 | -0.60 |
| Michael's GMOs | |
1.56 | -0.56 |
| Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
0.82 | 0.18 |
Standings through Week 5
We continue to see the haves and have-nots in the KFL spread further apart. We have 6 1-4 teams who need to turn it around next week or pack the season in. Meanwhile Nick’s “UN”Lucky Ducks now are the sole undefeated team at 5-0 after another win. The Onionhead’s and LGTE share the lead in the Glum Division at 4-1 and the Bluecat’s take sole possession of first at 4-1 as the Slugs dropped a heartbreaker to fall to 3-2.
One of these 4 win or better teams is going to miss the playoffs which will be a harsh beat this year given the lack of mediocrity in the league thus far.
| Standings Through Week 4 | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win-Loss Streak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | ||||
| Nick's Unlucky Ducks | |
5 | 0 | |
| Alex's Kraken | |
4 | 1 | |
| Diamond Dogs | |
1 | 4 | |
| Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
1 | 4 | |
| Glum | ||||
| Elliot's Last Good Tight End | |
4 | 1 | |
| Ruwes Onionheads | |
4 | 1 | |
| Michael's GMOs | |
1 | 4 | |
| Scott's TITANS | |
1 | 4 | |
| Ohio | ||||
| Sam’s Bluecats | |
4 | 1 | |
| Jeffs Slugs | |
3 | 2 | |
| Cincinnati Death Monarchs | |
1 | 4 | |
| Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners | |
1 | 4 | |
Best Ball Week 5 Update
Through 5 weeks the Bluecats are really squeezing the most juice out of their lineup with only 30 points under optimal. Their best ball record is the opposite of their actual record. The Slugs are not far behind having been the previous champ of minimizing poor lineup decision and then closely followed by the Onionheads.
On the other end, high flying teams like the LGTE and the “UN”Lucky Ducks have won despite leaving quite a few points on the bench. This just speaks to their bench depth and the makes both teams formidable as we head into the middle of the season.
| franchise_id | KFL Team | logo | Points under Optimal | Total Score - Optimal Lineup | Actual Total Score | Best Ball Wins | Best Ball Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sam’s Bluecats | |
-30 | 441 | 411 | 1 | 4 |
| 1 | Jeffs Slugs | |
-32 | 488 | 456 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | Ruwes Onionheads | |
-37 | 520 | 483 | 3 | 2 |
| 11 | Michael's GMOs | |
-49 | 417 | 368 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Alex's Kraken | |
-61 | 509 | 448 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Diamond Dogs | |
-64 | 424 | 360 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Cincinnati Death Monarchs | |
-79 | 520 | 441 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Elliot's Last Good Tight End | |
-80 | 576 | 496 | 4 | 1 |
| 5 | Scott's TITANS | |
-113 | 503 | 390 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners | |
-130 | 525 | 395 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | Nick's Unlucky Ducks | |
-131 | 536 | 405 | 4 | 1 |
| 4 | Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
-171 | 455 | 284 | 2 | 3 |
Stud of the Week
The Bluecats get their first Stud of the Week thanks to a breakout game by Austin Ekeler. Ekeler had gone 4 straight games with no TDs and then found himself in the end zone 3 times to lead the Bluecats to the top of their division.
| KFL Team | player | Team | actual score | projection | difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam’s Bluecats | Austin Ekeler |  |
LAC | 31 | 12 | 19 |
Dud of the Week
Dud of the week goes to MR. Welcome to Broncos Country, Danger Russ. Russell Wilson looks truly terrible making many in the analytics community question everything they thought they knew. Letting Russ cook is to risk burning down your kitchen. The only thing more disgraceful than Russ’s performance this week is the trade that sent him to the GMO’s and Josh Allen the other way.
| KFL Team | player | Team | actual score | projection | difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond Dogs | Russell Wilson |  |
DEN | 8 | 19 | -11 |