Week 1 Recap
Nothing like a first week bloodbath in toughest division in the KFL with the first and second highest scoring teams playing one another. A tough break for the Cincinnati Monarchs putting up above 100 points and taking the L. Sometimes we overthink things in this league, but in the KFL the quarterback still reigns and Patrick Mahomes 44 points would have handed the Tenderloins a loss all by themselves.
The Kraken get off to a hot start and look to be a force to be reckoned with yet again, but playing against an historical bad Tenderloin team made the 98 points a bit excessive. We had a couple of basement scraps with The Bluecats and Ducks scoring below 80 and still coming home with the dub, and Elliot’s Last Good Tight End and Scott’s Titans took the win in the Glum division.
| Week 1 2022 matchups | |||||||
| Winning Team | Win Probability | Score | Score | Win Probability | Losing Team | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot's Last Good Tight End |  |
0.66 | 93 | 71 | 0.26 |  |
Ruwes Onionheads |
| Sam’s Bluecats |  |
0.34 | 76 | 69 | 0.23 |  |
Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners |
| Alex's Kraken |  |
0.75 | 98 | 27 | 0.01 |  |
Kurt's The Tenderloins |
| Jeffs Slugs |  |
0.96 | 123 | 102 | 0.80 |  |
Cincinnati Monarchs |
| Scott's TITANS |  |
0.59 | 89 | 79 | 0.39 |  |
Michael's GMOs |
| Nick's Lucky Ducks |  |
0.39 | 79 | 69 | 0.23 |  |
Supermarket Studs |
Expected Wins power rankings through week 1 2022
The Monarchs had an 80% win probability with the points they put up, but came up unlucky facing a stiff opponent and start with -0.80 Wins over expected. They look to be a tough opponent going forward. On the opposite end of the spectrum, The Tenderloins start out with a 0.01 Expected wins so there is only up to go from here. The Bluecats are looking to be the lucky team right now with 0.66 wins over expected.
| Expected Wins through Week 1 | |||
| Team Name | Expected Wins | Wins Over Expected | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffs Slugs | |
0.96 | 0.04 |
| Cincinnati Monarchs | |
0.80 | -0.80 |
| Alex's Kraken | |
0.75 | 0.25 |
| Elliot's Last Good Tight End | |
0.66 | 0.34 |
| Scott's TITANS | |
0.59 | 0.41 |
| Nick's Lucky Ducks | |
0.39 | 0.61 |
| Michael's GMOs | |
0.39 | -0.39 |
| Sam’s Bluecats | |
0.34 | 0.66 |
| Ruwes Onionheads | |
0.26 | -0.26 |
| Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners | |
0.23 | -0.23 |
| Supermarket Studs | |
0.23 | -0.23 |
| Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
0.01 | -0.01 |
Standings through Week 1
| Standings Through Week 5 | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win-Loss Streak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | ||||
| Alex's Kraken | |
1 | 0 | |
| Nick's Lucky Ducks | |
1 | 0 | |
| Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
0 | 1 | |
| Supermarket Studs | |
0 | 1 | |
| Glum | ||||
| Elliot's Last Good Tight End | |
1 | 0 | |
| Scott's TITANS | |
1 | 0 | |
| Michael's GMOs | |
0 | 1 | |
| Ruwes Onionheads | |
0 | 1 | |
| Ohio | ||||
| Jeffs Slugs | |
1 | 0 | |
| Sam’s Bluecats | |
1 | 0 | |
| Cincinnati Monarchs | |
0 | 1 | |
| Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners | |
0 | 1 | |
Studs and Duds
A new feature this year will be the Stud and Dud of the week. I will highlight the players that disappointed the most or put up an unlikely performance and peformed well over expectation (according to ESPN projections). Other new features to come in following weeks, but I’ve been banging away at this laptop for too long. Enjoy.
Stud of the Week
I refuse to comment on this.
| KFL Team | player | Team | actual score | projection | difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael's GMOs | Steelers D/ST |  |
PIT | 25 | 3.8 | 21.2 |
Dud of the Week
Dud of the week goes to Cowboys Quarterback Dak Prescott. We love to kick a guy while he is down and while this is partially due to his injury, Dak and the Cowboys office looked putrid. Those with stock in Cowboys players should be worried because they look like they may be one of the worst teams in the league. Dak gets the inaugural dud of the week and gets a nice long break as Cooper Rush takes his job after going for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Bengals next week.
| KFL Team | player | Team | actual score | projection | difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt's The Tenderloins | Dak Prescott |  |
DAL | 4 | 22 | -18 |
Optimal Lineup (Best Ball) Rankings
Another new feature this year will be what I am calling the best ball rankings. Best Ball is an emerging popular format where your weekly score will be based on your best scores for each potential lineup slot without having to make lineup decisions. While the KFL doesn’t believe in such a ridiculous format, it can be interesting to see how different results would be under this format. Specifically, it gives us insight on which teams have a deep bench as well as which teams are making good lineup decisions. Teams with a big difference between their actual score and best ball score are doing a poor job making roster decisions week to week (or simply suffering from the variance gods).
We can see from this, for instance, that the Bluecats were not only lucky winning with only 76 points, but benefit from the Sunday Winner’s poor lineup selection.
| franchise_id | KFL Team | starter count | Optimal Best Ball Lineup | Actual Score | Points under Optimal | Best Ball Win | Best Ball Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ruwes Onionheads | |
8 | 75 | 71 | -4 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Scott's TITANS | |
8 | 93 | 89 | -4 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Jeffs Slugs | |
8 | 128 | 123 | -5 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Elliot's Last Good Tight End | |
8 | 100 | 93 | -7 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Alex's Kraken | |
8 | 110 | 98 | -12 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | Cincinnati Monarchs | |
8 | 114 | 102 | -12 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Michael's GMOs | |
8 | 91 | 79 | -12 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sam’s Bluecats | |
8 | 89 | 76 | -13 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nick's Lucky Ducks | |
8 | 101 | 79 | -22 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Supermarket Studs | |
8 | 98 | 69 | -29 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners |  |
8 | 103 | 69 | -34 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
8 | 67 | 27 | -40 | 0 | 1 |