Week 4 had a few notable headlines for the KFL. Jeff and Kurt in a battle of brothers tied 97-97 with Jeff’s Slugs winning the tie-breaker. It was a tough break for the Tenderloin’s who had a 73% win probability. The second tie was in the battle of the beaten. The Sunday Winners (1-3) had an incredibly unlucky stretch to go 0-3 despite 3 consecutive weeks of 100+ points. However, they caught a bit of luck against Nick’s Fightin’ Ducks (0-4) to win a 80-80 tie-breaker. The Fightin’ Ducks are now in sole possession of last place and will look to rebuild for next year in what is likely a lost season.
Both the undefeated Onionhead and Kraken lost in deserving fashion. The Onionheads put up a measly 47 points and let the SWAB get a lucky win where they only had a 12% win probability. The Kraken put up 67 to loss to Scott’s Titans 93-67.
Finally, Max’s Supermarket Studs and Micheal’s GMOs put up big weeks of 110 and 123 respectively, to even their records to 2-2.
| Week 4 matchups | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Team | Win Probability | Score | Score | Win Probability | Losing Team | ||
| Cincinnati SWAB |  |
0.12 | 59 | 47 | 0.05 |  |
Ruwes Onionheads |
| Jeffs Slugs |  |
0.73 | 97 | 97 | 0.73 |  |
Kurt's The Tenderloins |
| Michael's GMOs |  |
0.96 | 123 | 67 | 0.20 |  |
Sam’s Bluecats |
| Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners |  |
0.41 | 80 | 80 | 0.41 |  |
Nick's Unlucky Ducks |
| Scott's TITANS |  |
0.66 | 93 | 67 | 0.20 |  |
Alex's Kraken |
| Supermarket Studs |  |
0.88 | 110 | 64 | 0.16 |  |
Elliot's Warriors |
Expected Wins power rankings through week 4
Through Week 4, The Sunday Winners lead our expected wins power ranking. They will need to be hot the rest of the way out though if they want to make the playoffs. The Kraken, SuperMarket Studs, and Onionheads round out the top 4, suggesting the Kraken and Onionheads are the real deal with 3-1 records and expected wins to back it up.
Jeff’s Slugs and Cincinnati SWAB are riding some luck to their 3-1 record. Both teams just have 2 expected wins.
Meanwhile, Nick’s Fighting Ducks will see if they can buy a win next week, but they are certainly better than their 0.4 record suggests with 2 expected wins on the season.
Elliott’s Warriors find themselves in a familiar place at the basement of KFL with just 1 expected win on the season.
| Expected Wins through Week 4 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Name | Expected Wins | Wins Over Expected | |
| Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners | |
2.9 | 1.9 |
| Alex's Kraken | |
2.8 | -0.2 |
| Supermarket Studs | |
2.7 | 0.7 |
| Ruwes Onionheads | |
2.6 | -0.4 |
| Scott's TITANS | |
2.4 | 0.4 |
| Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
2.3 | 0.3 |
| Michael's GMOs | |
2.2 | 0.2 |
| Cincinnati SWAB | |
2.0 | -1.0 |
| Nick's Unlucky Ducks | |
2.0 | 2.0 |
| Jeffs Slugs | |
2.0 | -1.0 |
| Sam’s Bluecats | |
1.9 | -0.1 |
| Elliot's Warriors | |
1.1 | 0.1 |
Standings through Week 4
Below are the standings through week 4. The SWAB are on a three game winning streak and Nick’s Fightin’ Ducks own a 4 game losing streak.
| Standings Through Week 4 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win-Loss Streak | |
| Indiana | ||||
| Alex's Kraken | |
3 | 1 | |
| Kurt's The Tenderloins | |
2 | 2 | |
| Nick's Unlucky Ducks | |
0 | 4 | |
| Supermarket Studs | |
2 | 2 | |
| Ohio | ||||
| Cincinnati SWAB | |
3 | 1 | |
| Jeffs Slugs | |
3 | 1 | |
| Joe Sunderman's Sunday Winners | |
1 | 3 | |
| Sam’s Bluecats | |
2 | 2 | |
| Glum | ||||
| Elliot's Warriors | |
1 | 3 | |
| Michael's GMOs | |
2 | 2 | |
| Ruwes Onionheads | |
3 | 1 | |
| Scott's TITANS | |
2 | 2 | |